NAR'S Outlook on CRE Positive but Moderating

The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) quarterly commercial real estate forecast was released today, which reflects continued improvements in the commercial real estate markets, though at a slower pace. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said NAR's latest Commercial Real Estate Outlook shows that fundamentals are still on an uptrend. "Growth in commercial real estate sectors continues at a moderate pace from a very slow pace of absorption, despite job additions to the economy. Companies appear hesitant to add new space," he said. Highlights from the office market follow:

Vacancy rates in the office sector should decline from an expected 15.8% in the first quarter of this year to 15.6% in the first quarter of 2015.

The markets with the lowest office vacancy rates presently (in the first quarter) are New York City, with a vacancy rate of 9.5%; Washington, D.C., at 10.2%; Little Rock, Ark., 11.6%; Birmingham, Ala., 12.7%; and San Francisco and Nashville, Tenn., at 12.8% each.

Office rents are projected to increase 2.3% in 2014 and 3.2% next year. Net absorption of office space in the U.S., which includes the leasing of new space coming on the market as well as space in existing properties, is likely to total 44.6 million square feet this year and 50.0 million in 2015.

For more news and information visit Blumberg Capital Partners.

NAR Expects CRE Market to Improve in Year Ahead

The National Association of Realtors held its Economic Issues and Commercial Real Estate Business Trends Forum at the 2011 Realtors© Conference & Expo this month exploring the conditions in real estate and particularly the commercial real estate industry in tandem with the nation's economic recovery. Chief Economist Lawrence Yun shared his predictions for the commercial real estate market in 2012 and 2013, anticipating a steady improvement in commercial real estate markets. Yun was joined by Kenneth Riggs, president and chairman of Real Estate Research Corporation (RERC) and chief real estate economist of the CCIM Institute, and Robert White, founder and president of Real Capital Analytics, who shared his outlook for slight improvements in commercial real estate markets in the year ahead.

"I anticipate a small recovery in the next year in home values, which would help small business owners; however, that's only if legislators and regulations don't add obstacles to hinder the housing market recovery, such as modifying or eliminating the mortgage interest deduction or increasing down payment requirements," said Yun. He predicted moderate improvements in commercial real estate markets and the broad economy because job growth and other economic factors are slowly improving. He said that despite the stock market's volatility, it is performing higher than it was in 2008, making it easier for companies to raise capital and for consumers to gain wealth. Yun doesn't anticipate a second economic recession in the near term, because of the strong cash potential that businesses could release into economy, which would help the country avoid a second recession. He said that international trade is expanding and that international home buyers are taking advantage of the weaker dollar and investing in commercial and residential real estate.

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NAR Sees Modest Improvement in CRE Market

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) has released its latest observations on the conditions of the real estate markets, the Commercial Real Estate Outlook, and noted that commercial real estate vacancy rates are flat with moderate projections for growth and modest improvements expected over the coming year. NAR forecasts vacancies to decline 0.3 percentage point in the office sector, 0.6 point in industrial real estate, 0.7 point in the retail sector and 0.9 percentage point in the multifamily rental market.

"Disappointing economic growth in recent months means a slower recovery for most of the commercial real estate sectors, although multifamily housing continues to benefit from pent-up demand resulting from an abnormal slowdown in household formation in recent years," said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist. "Many young people, who normally would have struck out on their own from 2008 to 2010, had been doubling up with roommates or moving back into their parents' homes. However, they've been entering the rental market as new households in stronger numbers this year. As a result, apartment vacancy rates are declining and rents are rising at faster rates."

Particular to the office market, NAR observed:

- Vacancy rates in the office sector are forecast to fall from 16.6% in the third quarter of this year to 16.3% in the third quarter of 2012.

- The markets with the lowest office vacancy rates currently are Washington, D.C., with a vacancy rate of 8.6%; New York City, at 10.1%; and Long Island, N.Y., 13.0%.

- Office rents are expected to rise 0.8% in 2011 and another 1.5% next year. Net absorption of office space in the U.S., which includes the leasing of new space coming on the market as well as space in existing properties, is projected to be 28.3 million square feet this year.

For more news and information visit Blumberg Capital Partners.

NAR Says CRE Markets Stabilizing

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) has released its latest Commercial Real Estate Outlook report with projections and observations for the commercial real estate sectors and analysis of quarterly data. The report indicates that the improving economy and job creation will lead to growing demand for commercial real estate and reflects an overall stabilization in the market. "Job growth creates demand for commercial space, and the economy should be adding between 1.5 million and 2 million jobs annually both this year and in 2012, with the unemployment rate falling to 8.0 percent by the end of next year," said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist. "Given the minimal new supply in recent years, the rising demand means vacancy rates will be trending down in the commercial real estate sectors. Individual markets are now stabilizing and in some cases rising."

An excerpt from the report regarding office market conditions:

Vacancy rates in the office sector are expected to fall from 16.3 percent in the second quarter of this year to 15.3 percent in the second quarter of 2012.

The markets with the lowest office vacancy rates currently are Honolulu and New York City, each with vacancies below 9 percent.

Office rents are projected to rise 0.3 percent this year and another 4.3 percent in 2012. In 57 markets tracked, net absorption of office space, which includes the leasing of new space coming on the market as well as space in existing properties, is likely to be 26.6 million square feet in 2011.

For more news and information visit Blumberg Capital Partners.

NAR Says CRE Market Stabilizing, Vacancies Peaking

According to the National Association of Realtors® the commercial real estate markets are flattening out and appear to be stabilizing. The association expects modestly improving fundamentals in the coming year. "Property fundamentals are improving, investment capital is slowly flowing back into the sector, commercial mortgage originations are increasing, and demand for CMBS issuance is gaining traction," Standard & Poor's said in a Bloomberg report. An excerpt from NAR's office market findings:

Vacancy rates in the office sector, where a large volume of sublease space remains on the market, are forecast to decline from 16.7 percent in the current quarter to 16.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011, but with very little change during in the first half of the year.

The markets with the lowest office vacancy rates currently are New York City and Honolulu, with vacancies around 9 percent. All other monitored markets have double-digit vacancy rates.

Annual office rent is expected to decline 1.8 percent this year, and then slip another 1.6 percent in 2011. In 57 markets tracked, net absorption of office space, which includes the leasing of new space coming on the market as well as space in existing properties, should be a negative 3.7 million square feet this year and then a positive 16.4 million in 2011.

For more news and information visit Blumberg Capital Partners.