The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) quarterly commercial real estate forecast was released today, which reflects continued improvements in the commercial real estate markets, though at a slower pace. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said NAR's latest Commercial Real Estate Outlook shows that fundamentals are still on an uptrend. "Growth in commercial real estate sectors continues at a moderate pace from a very slow pace of absorption, despite job additions to the economy. Companies appear hesitant to add new space," he said. Highlights from the office market follow:
Vacancy rates in the office sector should decline from an expected 15.8% in the first quarter of this year to 15.6% in the first quarter of 2015.
The markets with the lowest office vacancy rates presently (in the first quarter) are New York City, with a vacancy rate of 9.5%; Washington, D.C., at 10.2%; Little Rock, Ark., 11.6%; Birmingham, Ala., 12.7%; and San Francisco and Nashville, Tenn., at 12.8% each.
Office rents are projected to increase 2.3% in 2014 and 3.2% next year. Net absorption of office space in the U.S., which includes the leasing of new space coming on the market as well as space in existing properties, is likely to total 44.6 million square feet this year and 50.0 million in 2015.
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