NAR Sees Modest Improvement in CRE Market

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) has released its latest observations on the conditions of the real estate markets, the Commercial Real Estate Outlook, and noted that commercial real estate vacancy rates are flat with moderate projections for growth and modest improvements expected over the coming year. NAR forecasts vacancies to decline 0.3 percentage point in the office sector, 0.6 point in industrial real estate, 0.7 point in the retail sector and 0.9 percentage point in the multifamily rental market.

"Disappointing economic growth in recent months means a slower recovery for most of the commercial real estate sectors, although multifamily housing continues to benefit from pent-up demand resulting from an abnormal slowdown in household formation in recent years," said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist. "Many young people, who normally would have struck out on their own from 2008 to 2010, had been doubling up with roommates or moving back into their parents' homes. However, they've been entering the rental market as new households in stronger numbers this year. As a result, apartment vacancy rates are declining and rents are rising at faster rates."

Particular to the office market, NAR observed:

- Vacancy rates in the office sector are forecast to fall from 16.6% in the third quarter of this year to 16.3% in the third quarter of 2012.

- The markets with the lowest office vacancy rates currently are Washington, D.C., with a vacancy rate of 8.6%; New York City, at 10.1%; and Long Island, N.Y., 13.0%.

- Office rents are expected to rise 0.8% in 2011 and another 1.5% next year. Net absorption of office space in the U.S., which includes the leasing of new space coming on the market as well as space in existing properties, is projected to be 28.3 million square feet this year.

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