CRE Prices Crest Pre-Recession Peak

The latest Moody's/RCA Commercial Property Price Indices (CPPI) report was released this week, revealing that in August the CPPI rose 1.6%, topping its pre-crisis peak on a Consumer Price Index (CPI) adjusted basis. According to the report, which captures the national all-property composite index over the past three months, the CPPI now stands 14.5% above its pre-crisis peak on a nominal basis and 1.5% above it on a real, CPI adjusted basis. Central business district (CBD) office was the best-performing segment, while core commercial property prices are approximately 8% higher than their prior peak,

"Central business district office was by far the best-performing segment of the CPPI in the past three months, with prices rising 6.3%," says Moody's Director of Commercial Real Estate Research, Tad Philipp. "Suburban office was the next-best-performing segment, with prices up 3%."

Jim Costello, RCA's senior vice president, said prices have been pushed up because the capitalization rates have been falling. The cap rate is a commonly used formula for valuing a commercial-property investment. It's calculated by dividing a property's net operating income by its current market value. If the cap rate falls while the expected income from the property remains roughly the same, the asset values tend to rise. "Most of the strong price appreciation we've seen to date has been a function of cap-rate compression, something like 70% of the price increases, in fact," Costello said.

Moody's/RCA researchers note that the only property sectors where prices have not exceeded their pre-recession peak are retail (still down 7%) and suburban office (down 9%). Moody's research subscribers can access the latest report here. For more news and information visit Blumberg Partners.

Moody's CPPI Up 2.4% in August

The latest Moody's/REAL Commercial Property Price Indices report for October 2011 was released this week recording a 2.4% increase in August for the National — All Property Type Aggregate Index (CPPI), bringing it to 15.3% above the post-peak low recorded in April 2011. An excerpt from the report:

The share of distressed transactions included within this month's CPPI was 21.7%, down 5.9% from last month and the lowest level since January 2010. Prices for distressed transactions were down by 3.5% from the last month and are 6.9% above their post peak low set in August 2010. The reduced share of distressed transactions helped drive this month's overall price increase.

Looking forward, we do not envision significant price increases over the next year. While distressed transactions should be at or near their high water mark for this cycle, there is less CMBS loan origination to help support acquisition pricing, especially beyond the portfolio lender sweet spot of trophy properties and top tier markets.

"There's more caution," Robert Bach, chief economist for Grubb & Ellis Co., a Santa Ana, California-based brokerage, said in a telephone interview with Businessweek before the Moody's report was released. "Investors in general are a little more cautious, and that includes investors in commercial real estate."

For more news and information visit Blumberg Capital Partners.

Moody's Commercial Property Prices up 4.3% in September

Commercial commercial real estate prices saw a 4.3% rise in September according to Moody's Investors Service and Real Estate Analytics. The rebound marks the first increase since May and the largest gain in the history of the CPPI. Prices for office properties and industrial spaces decreased during the third quarter, down 3.8% and 4.3%, respectively. Compared to the year-ago third quarter, when office properties hit a recession low, prices are up 4.4%.

"Each of the summer months this year recorded declines in the 3%-4% range, followed by this month’s sizeable uptick," said Moody's Managing Director Nick Levidy. "The relatively large swings in the index in recent months are due, in part, to the uncertain macroeconomic environment and the low number of repeat-sale transactions."

For more news and information visit Blumberg Capital Partners.