The latest Moody's/REAL Commercial Property Price Indices report for October 2011 was released this week recording a 2.4% increase in August for the National — All Property Type Aggregate Index (CPPI), bringing it to 15.3% above the post-peak low recorded in April 2011. An excerpt from the report:
The share of distressed transactions included within this month's CPPI was 21.7%, down 5.9% from last month and the lowest level since January 2010. Prices for distressed transactions were down by 3.5% from the last month and are 6.9% above their post peak low set in August 2010. The reduced share of distressed transactions helped drive this month's overall price increase.
Looking forward, we do not envision significant price increases over the next year. While distressed transactions should be at or near their high water mark for this cycle, there is less CMBS loan origination to help support acquisition pricing, especially beyond the portfolio lender sweet spot of trophy properties and top tier markets.
"There's more caution," Robert Bach, chief economist for Grubb & Ellis Co., a Santa Ana, California-based brokerage, said in a telephone interview with Businessweek before the Moody's report was released. "Investors in general are a little more cautious, and that includes investors in commercial real estate."
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