Beige Book Looks "Expanded, Upbeat" for 2016 CRE

The Federal Reserve has released the latest Beige Book, summarizing how the economies in the Fed's 12 districts are performing, which finds that the reporting districts are "generally upbeat." With respect to real estate, the data indicated that activity was generally improved over the last Beige Book, with stronger activity cited for multifamily construction and commercial real estate. Overall, most districts reported that loan demand grew, credit quality improved, or loan delinquencies fell, with credit standards changing little. An excerpt from the summary follows:

Most reporting Districts characterized nonresidential real estate activity as modest to moderate; Boston and New York indicated little change. Rental rates rose in more than half of the reporting Districts, and vacancy rates were mixed. Most Districts reported modest or moderate growth in commercial construction, and the Dallas District noted high levels of industrial construction in Dallas-Fort Worth. Contacts in the Atlanta District expect construction activity to increase slightly, while contacts in the Philadelphia, St. Louis, Minneapolis, and Richmond Districts expect overall commercial real estate activity to continue to strengthen at least modestly.

To read the full January 13, 2016 Federal Reserve Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions by Federal Reserve District, click here. For more news and information visit Blumberg Partners.

Latest Beige Book Shows Moderate Growth

The U.S. Federal Reserve has released the latest Beige Book, more formally called the Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions, which indicates that economic activity increased at a modest pace in most regions of the country since the previous Beige Book report. Fed policymakers are widely seen raising interest rates for the first time in almost a decade at their next meeting on Dec. 15-16, but continue to parse data and trends carefully given the uneven nature of the U.S. recovery.

"On balance, economic and financial information received since our October meeting has been consistent with our expectations of continued improvement in the labor market," Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen said in prepared text for a speech to be delivered in Washington today. "Continuing improvement in the labor market helps strengthen confidence that inflation will move back to our 2% objective over the medium term." A summary of the commercial real estate sectors follows:

Commercial construction strengthened modestly in most Districts since the previous report. The Minneapolis District saw continued strong growth, particularly in cities where commercial permitting increased. The Boston, Cleveland, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, and San Francisco Districts reported moderate commercial construction growth. In the Boston District, office construction grew modestly in the greater Boston region. Demand remained strong in commercial building, multi-family housing, and higher education in the Cleveland District, while in the Atlanta District, non-residential construction was slightly up from a year ago and reports on apartment construction remained robust. The Philadelphia, Richmond and Kansas City Districts reported a modest pace of growth in commercial construction. Commercial construction increased in most major cities in the Richmond District. In contrast, New York reported little change since the previous report. The Dallas District reported that construction remained active, although construction started to taper off in Houston.

Commercial leasing activity generally grew at a moderate pace. Cleveland reported strong growth, while activity in the Districts of Boston, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Minneapolis, Dallas and San Francisco expanded at a moderate pace. Commercial real estate improved in the Atlanta District, with increased absorption and rent growth across property types. Improvement in the Chicago District was widely distributed across the retail, industrial, and office segments, with increased demand for both sale and lease properties. Contacts in St. Louis reported slightly higher demand across all sectors, and expected demand to remain the same or increase slightly in the first quarter of 2016. The Minneapolis-St. Paul retail, office, and industrial space had positive net absorption, along with lower vacancy rates. Demand for commercial leasing increased mildly in the Dallas District, while office space activity was strong in the Dallas-Fort Worth area. Commercial leasing activity in New York was unchanged since the previous report.

For more news and information visit Blumberg Partners.

Fed's Beige Book and Commercial Real Estate

The U.S. Federal Reserve's latest Beige Book, more formally called the Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions, was released today with figures pointing to continued modest expansion in economic activity during the reporting period from mid-August through early October. Citing "generally weaker" manufacturing activity, "subdued" wage expansion and a "slowed" pace of growth in some regions, the Fed's report highlights a handful of concerns while offering a modestly optimistic economic assessment overall.

According to the report, commercial real estate markets have shown signs of strengthening in all twelve federal reserve districts. Most noted improvement across all major segments, though New York and St. Louis noted some increased slack in the market for retail space. Commercial construction was also stronger, with Boston and St. Louis noting brisk construction in the health sector, including senior care facilities, and Cleveland also indicating strong demand for senior living structures. New York, on the other hand, noted some pullback in new commercial construction, though activity remained fairly brisk.

To read the full report, click here. For more news and information visit Blumberg Partners.

Beige Book Shows CRE Activity Improved in November

The latest Beige Book from the Federal Reserve Board, based on information collected before November 14, 2012, summarizes comments received from businesses and other contacts outside the Federal Reserve to provide a snapshot of the U.S. economy, and its outlook. The results are culled from Bank and Branch directors and interviews with key business contacts, economists, market experts, and other sources in twelve major market sectors: Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas and San Francisco.

The summary for real estate and banking across all twelve sectors follows:

Real Estate and Construction
Overall, markets for single-family homes continued to improve across most Districts with the exception of Boston and Philadelphia. Residential real estate markets in the New York District were mixed but generally firm prior to the storm. Selling prices were steady or rising. Boston, New York, Richmond, Atlanta, Kansas City, and Dallas noted declining or tight inventories. The Cleveland District indicated that the number of single-family housing starts had increased since our last report and from a year ago; most sales contracts were in higher price-point categories. Similarly, Richmond noted more residential work in the high-end home category for the first time in three years, and builders cited significant pent-up demand in the first-time buyer segment. Atlanta indicated that existing home sales were up slightly compared to a year ago and reported that investors were more active in Florida than in the rest of the District. In Chicago, residential construction increased at a slow but steady pace in October and early November, and construction increased for single-family as well as multi-family homes. St. Louis reported that residential real estate market conditions continued to improve, and Minneapolis indicated that segments of construction and real estate were growing at a double-digit clip. Kansas City characterized residential real estate activity as brisk and noted that a solid rise in home sales had reduced home inventories. Dallas noted that single-family housing activity remained strong, with both new and existing home sales activity increasing. San Francisco reported that home demand continued to strengthen and that home sales continued to grow on a sustained basis in most areas, spurring new home construction. However, sales growth generally slowed for both the condominium and single-family home markets in the Boston District, and the Philadelphia District noted that October began as a disappointing month for some Realtors, only to be punctuated by Hurricane Sandy.

Construction and commercial real estate activity generally improved across Districts since the last report. Gains, albeit modest in most cases, were reported by Philadelphia, Richmond, Chicago, and Minneapolis. The gains among Cleveland's contacts were tempered by reports in recent weeks of a slowdown in inquiries and a decline in public-sector projects. Kansas City described activity as holding firm and noted that real estate markets remained stronger than a year ago. Demand for office and industrial space continued to increase in Dallas, although contacts at some businesses said they were "holding back on expansions due to uncertainty." Several Districts noted segments of little change in commercial real estate activity. Boston described market fundamentals as flat, and San Francisco depicted market conditions as stable but with pockets of strength for large infrastructure projects such as roads and bridges. Commercial and industrial conditions were mixed in the St. Louis District and throughout most of New York prior to the hurricane. New York added that, while office markets across upstate New York were unaffected by the storm, there were some signs of recent softening.

Banking and Financial Services
Loan demand generally was either mixed or slightly stronger across most Districts in recent weeks. Among those noting mixed results, New York reported that demand for consumer and especially commercial and industrial loans weakened, but commercial and residential mortgage demand was steady. Richmond said that a small commercial banker was encountering a slight improvement in overall loan demand but added that consumer loans were unchanged from "meager" levels and small business loans were virtually non-existent. Chicago noted that small business loan demand experienced modest growth, but a decrease in credit demand occurred among middle-market customers. According to St. Louis contacts, overall lending activity was essentially unchanged over the period. St. Louis added that, while credit standards for commercial and industrial loans were largely unchanged, both the demand for these loans and the number of inquiries ranged from moderately lower to moderately higher. Used car loan demand was weak in the Dallas District, although first mortgage and energy-related lending increased. San Francisco cited weak-to-moderate business loan demand, but consumer lending expanded further with the help of auto loans and home mortgage refinancing; however, San Francisco noted that lending activity as a whole was unchanged. Most remaining Districts, including Philadelphia, Cleveland, Atlanta, and Kansas City reported moderate increases in total loan demand. In the Philadelphia District, banks reported widespread bank and ATM closings due to Hurricane Sandy.

Credit standards and credit quality were somewhat improved, on net, since the last report. Chicago, St. Louis, and Kansas City noted that credit standards on most types of loans were unchanged, and Dallas cited a loosening of credit standards, which contributed to very competitive loan pricing. Atlanta cited contacts who reported that underwriting standards had become more restrictive and burdensome since its last report, both in terms of credit scores and information requests. With respect to loan quality, New York reported that delinquency rates increased in the consumer and commercial and industrial segments but held steady in the residential and commercial mortgage segments. Philadelphia contacts cited moderate improvement. Cleveland and Richmond noted improvements in delinquency rates across consumer and business loan categories. Richmond added, however, that some contacts were concerned that banks were increasing their risk exposure by making longer-term loans in an effort to get higher yields. Kansas City and San Francisco also mentioned moderate improvement in loan quality.

For more news and information visit Blumberg Capital Partners.

Latest Beige Book Comments on CRE Conditions

The latest Beige Book, prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, summarizing comments received from businesses and other contacts outside the Federal Reserve, was released this week. As BBC notes, growth appeared to slow in several regions across the US in May, with the manufacturing sector notably sluggish, which the Fed blamed on the disruption to supply chains from Japan's earthquake. An excerpt from the real estate portion of the report:

Commercial and industrial real estate markets have generally been steady since the last report, though there have been scattered signs of a pickup. Commercial leasing markets showed modest signs of improvement in the Richmond and San Francisco Districts. Boston and Dallas noted some firming in property sales markets, but Kansas City reported declines in prices for office buildings. Non-residential construction, though widely reported to be at very low levels, rose modestly in the Boston, Chicago, Minneapolis, and Dallas Districts, though Chicago noted that public sector projects are becoming smaller. Cleveland observed a pickup in industrial and high-end commercial development but a pullback in healthcare-related projects. Richmond reported some pockets of strength in the retail market. More broadly, contacts in a number of Districts expressed a general sense of optimism about the outlook for the second half of 2011.

To real the full report, click here. For more news and information, visit Blumberg Capital Partners.